A simple-to-use nomogram to predict long term survival of patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) using bilateral internal thoracic artery grafting technique


Autoři: Tomer Ziv-Baran aff001;  Rephael Mohr aff002;  Dmitry Pevni aff002;  Yanai Ben-Gal aff002
Působiště autorů: Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health, Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel aff001;  Department of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery, Tel-Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, and Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel aff002
Vyšlo v časopise: PLoS ONE 14(10)
Kategorie: Research Article
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0224310

Souhrn

Background

Several risk scores have been created to predict long term mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Several studies demonstrated a reduction in long-term mortality following bilateral internal thoracic arteries (BITA) compared to single internal thoracic artery. However, these prediction models usually referred to long term survival as survival of up to 5 years. Moreover, none of these models were built specifically for operation incorporating BITA grafting.

Methods

A historical cohort study of all patients who underwent isolated BITA grafting between 1996 and 2011 at Tel-Aviv Sourasky medical center, a tertiary referral university affiliated medical center with a 24-bed cardio-thoracic surgery department. Study population (N = 2,935) was randomly divided into 2 groups: learning group which was used to build the prediction model and validation group. Cox regression was used to predict death using pre-procedural risk factors (demographic data, patient comorbidities, cardiac characteristics and patient's status). The accuracy (discrimination and calibration) of the prediction model was evaluated.

Methods and findings

The learning (1,468 patients) and validation (1,467 patients) groups had similar preoperative characteristics and similar survival. Older age, diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive lung disease, congestive heart failure, chronic renal failure, old MI, ejection fraction ≤30%, pre-operative use of intra-aortic balloon, and peripheral vascular disease, were significant predictors of mortality and were used to build the prediction model. The area under the ROC curves for 5, 10, and 15-year survival ranged between 0.742 and 0.762 for the learning group and between 0.766 and 0.770 for the validation group. The prediction model showed good calibration performance in both groups. A nomogram was built in order to introduce a simple-to-use tool for prediction of 5, 10, and 15-year survival.

Conclusions

A simple-to-use validated model can be used for a prediction of 5, 10, and 15-year mortality after CABG using the BITA grafting technique.

Klíčová slova:

Coronary artery bypass grafting – Forecasting – Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease – Learning curves – Myocardial infarction – Surgical and invasive medical procedures – Vascular surgery – Peripheral vascular disease


Zdroje

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Článek vyšel v časopise

PLOS One


2019 Číslo 10