Can knowledge of election results change recall of our predictions? Neural correlates of political hindsight bias

Autoři: Yin-Hua Chen aff001;  Hsu-Po Cheng aff001;  Yu-Wen Lu aff001;  Pei-Hong Lee aff001;  Georg Northoff aff001;  Nai-Shing Yen aff001
Působiště autorů: Research Center for Mind, Brain, and Learning, National Chengchi University, Taipei, Taiwan aff001;  Mind, Brain Imaging and Neuroethics, Institute of Mental Health Research, Royal Ottawa Health Care Group, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada aff002;  Graduate Institute of Humanities in Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan aff003;  Brain and Consciousness Research Center, Taipei Medical University, Shuang Ho Hospital, New Taipei City, Taiwan aff004;  Center for Cognition and Brain Disorders (CBBD), Normal University, Hangzhou, China aff005;  Department of Psychology, National Chengchi University, Taipei, Taiwan aff006
Vyšlo v časopise: PLoS ONE 14(10)
Kategorie: Research Article
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0220690


Hindsight bias (HB) is the tendency to retrospectively exaggerate one’s foresight knowledge about the outcome of an event. Cognitive processes influenced by newly obtained outcome information are used to explain the HB phenomenon, but the neural correlates remain unknown. This study investigated HB in the context of election results using a memory design and functional magnetic resonance imaging for the first time. Participants were asked to predict and recall the percentage of votes obtained by (pairs of) candidates before and after an election. The results revealed that 88% of participants showed HB by recalling that their predictions were closer to the actual outcomes than they really were; and participants had HB for 38% of the events. The HB effect was associated with activation in the medial superior frontal gyrus and bilateral inferior frontal gyrus (IFG), which have been implicated in updating an old belief due to new information and is similar to the process of reconstruction bias. Furthermore, participants with a greater HB effect showed greater activation of the left IFG. In conclusion, we successfully observed the HB phenomenon in election results, and our imaging results suggested that the HB phenomenon might involve reconstruction bias.

Klíčová slova:

Behavior – Cognition – Elections – Functional magnetic resonance imaging – Memory – Memory recall – Neuroimaging – Taiwan


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