#PAGE_PARAMS# #ADS_HEAD_SCRIPTS# #MICRODATA#

Relative contribution of climate and non-climate drivers in determining dynamic rates of boreal birds at the edge of their range


Autoři: Michale J. Glennon aff001;  Stephen F. Langdon aff002;  Madeleine A. Rubenstein aff003;  Molly S. Cross aff004
Působiště autorů: Wildlife Conservation Society, Saranac Lake, NY, United States of America aff001;  Shingle Shanty Preserve and Research Station, Long Lake, NY, United States of America aff002;  National Climate Adaptation Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, United States of America aff003;  Wildlife Conservation Society, Bozeman, MT, United States of America aff004
Vyšlo v časopise: PLoS ONE 14(10)
Kategorie: Research Article
doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0224308

Souhrn

The Adirondack Park in New York State contains a unique and limited distribution of boreal ecosystem types, providing habitat for a number of birds at the southern edge of their range. Species are projected to shift poleward in a warming climate, and the limited boreal forest of the Adirondacks is expected to undergo significant change in response to rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. Here we expand upon a previous analysis to examine changes in occupancy patterns for eight species of boreal birds over a decade (2007–2016), and we assess the relative contribution of climate and non-climate drivers in determining colonization and extinction rates. Our analysis identifies patterns of declining occupancy for six of eight species, including some declines which appear to have become more pronounced since a prior analysis. Although non-climate drivers such as wetland area, connectivity, and human footprint continue to influence colonization and extinction rates, we find that for most species, occupancy patterns are best described by climate drivers. We modeled both average and annual temperature and precipitation characteristics and find stronger support for species’ responses to average climate conditions, rather than interannual climate variability. In general, boreal birds appear most likely to colonize sites that have lower levels of precipitation and a high degree of connectivity, and they tend to persist in sites that are warmer in the breeding season and have low and less variable precipitation in the winter. It is likely that these responses reflect interactions between broader habitat conditions and temperature and precipitation variables. Indirect climate influences as mediated through altered species interactions may also be important in this context. Given climate change predictions for both temperature and precipitation, it is likely that habitat structural changes over the long term may alter these relationships in the future.

Klíčová slova:

Birds – Climate change – Latitude – Seasons – Species colonization – Species extinction – Wetlands – Winter


Zdroje

1. Essl F, Dullinger S, Moser D, Rabitsch W, Kleinbauer I. Vulnerability of mires under climate change: implications for nature conservation and climate change adaptation. Biodivers Conserv. 2012; 21(3): 655–669.

2. Jenkins JJ. Climate Change in the Adirondacks: The Path to Sustainability. Ithaca: Comstock Publishing Associates, Cornell University Press; 2010.

3. LaChance D, Lavoie C, Desrochers A. The impact of peatland afforestation on plant and bird diversity in southeastern Quebec. Ecoscience. 2005; 12(2): 161–171.

4. Moore PD. The future of cool temperate bogs. Environ Conserv J. 2002; 29(1):3–20.

5. Stenseth NC, Durant JM, Fowler MS, Matthysen E, Adriaensen F, Jonzén N, et al. Testing for the effects of climate change on competitive relationships and coexistence between two bird species. Proc Biol Sci. 2015; 282:20141958. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2014.1958 25904659

6. Møller A, Rubolini D, Lehikoinen E. Populations of migratory bird species that did not show a phenological response to climate change are declining. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2008; 105(42): 16195–16200. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0803825105 18849475

7. Zuckerberg B, Bonter DN, Hochachka WM, Koenig WD, DeGaetano AT, Dickinson JL. Climatic constraints on wintering bird distributions modified by urbanization and weather. J Anim Ecol. 2011; 80: 403–413. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2010.01780.x 21118200

8. Robinson RA, Baillie SR, Crick HQP. Weather-dependent survival: implications of climate change for passerine population processes. Ibis. 2007; 149: 357–364.

9. MacArthur RH. Geographical ecology: Patterns in the distribution of species. New York: Harper & Row; 1972.

10. Brown JH, Lomolino MV. Biogeography. 2nd ed. Sunderland, MA: Sinauer Associates, Inc.; 1998.

11. Glennon MJ. Dynamics of boreal birds at the edge of their range in the Adirondack Park, NY. Northeast Nat (Steuben). 2014; 21(1): NENHC-51-NENHC-71.

12. Parmesan C. Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annu Rev Ecol Syst. 2006; 37: 637–669.

13. Lloyd J, Hill JM, McFarland KP. The state of the mountain birds: measuring population health across two decades. 2017; Available from https://mountainbirds.vtecostudies.org/

14. Anderson MG, Clark M, Ferree CE, Jospe A, Olivero Sheldon A, Weaver KJ. Northeast Habitat Guides: A companion to the terrestrial and aquatic habitat maps. Boston (MA): The Nature Conservancy, Eastern Conservation Science; 2013. Available from: http://easterndivision.s3.amazonaws.com/NortheastHabitatGuides.pdf.

15. Ralph CJ, Droege S, Sauer JR. Managing and monitoring birds using point counts: Standards and applications. In: Ralph CJ, Sauer JR, Droege S, editors. Monitoring bird populations by point counts. Albany (CA): USDA Forest Service. Technical Report PSW-GTR-149.

16. MacKenzie DI, Nichols JD, Royle JA, Pollock KH, Bailey LL, Hines JE. Occupancy estimation and modeling: Inferring patterns and dynamics of species occurrence. 1st ed. Cambridge: Academic Press; 2006.

17. Cowardin LM, Carter V, Golet FG, LaRoe ET. Classification of wetlands and deepwater habitats of the United States. Washington (DC): U.S. Department of the Interior Fish and Wildlife Service, Office of Biological Services; 1979.

18. Woolmer G., Trombulak SC, Ray JC, Doran PJ, Anderson MG, Baldwin RF, et al. Rescaling the human footprint: A tool for conservation planning at an ecoregional scale. Landsc Urban Plan. 2008; 87: 42–53.

19. Daly C, Halbleib M, Smith JI, Gibson WP, Doggett MK, Taylor GH, et al. Physiographically sensitive mapping of climatological temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States. Int J Climatol. 2008; 28(15): 2031–2064.

20. Hines JE. 2006. Presence2: Software to estimate patch occupancy and related parameters. Version 12.24 Available from: https://www.mbr-pwrc.usgs.gov/software/presence.html.

21. Burnham KP, Anderson DR. Model selection and multimodel inference: A practical information-theoretical approach. 2nd ed. New York: Springer-Verlag; 2002.

22. Schlesinger MD, Manley PN, Holyoak M. Distinguishing stressors acting on land bird communities in an urbanizing environment. Ecology. 2008; 89(8): 2302–2314. doi: 10.1890/07-0256.1 18724740

23. Uelmen JA, Lindroth RL, Tobin PC, Reich PB, Schwartzberg EG, Raffa KF. Effects of winter temperatures, spring degree-day accumulation, and insect population source on phenological synchrony between forest tent caterpillar and host trees. For Ecol Manage. 2016; 362: 241–250.

24. Gutiérrez Illán J, Thomas CD, Jones JA, Wong WK, Shirley SM, Betts MG. Precipitation and winter temperature predict long-term range-scale abundance changes in Western North American birds. Glob Chang Biol. 2014; 20: 3351–3364. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12642 24863299

25. Matthews SN, Iverson LR, Prasad AM, Peters MP. Changes in potential habitat of 147 North American breeding bird species in response to redistribution of trees and climate following predicted climate change. Ecography. 2011; 34: 933–945.

26. Rodenhouse NL, Christenson LM, Parry D, Green LE. Climate change effects on native fauna of northeastern forests. Can J For Res. 2009; 39: 249–263.

27. Stralberg D, Matsuoka SM, Hamann A, Bayne EM, Solymos P, Schmiegelow FK, et al. Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise. Ecol Apps. 2015; 25(1): 52–69.

28. Niemi G, Howe RW, Sturtevant BR, Parker LR, Grinde AR, Danz NP, et al. Analysis of long-term forest bird monitoring data from national forests of the western Great Lakes region. Newtown Square (PA): USDA Forest Service General Technical Report NRS-159; 2016.

29. Sauer JD, Niven DK, Hines JE, Ziolkowski DJ Jr, Pardieck KL, Fallon JE, et al. The North American Breeding Bird Survey, Results and Analysis 1966–2015. Version 2.07.2017 [Internet]. Laurel (MD): USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center [cited 2018 August 15]. Available from: https://www.mbr-pwrc.usgs.gov/bbs/.

30. Ralston J, King DI, DeLuca WV, Niemi GJ, Glennon MJ, Scarl JC, et al. Analysis of combined datasets yields trend estimates for vulnerable spruce-fir birds in northern United States. Biol Conserv. 2015; 187: 270–278.

31. Hayhoe K, Wake C, Anderson B, Liang X, Maurer E, Zhu J, et al. Regional climate projections for the northeast USA. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang. 2008; 13(5–6): 425–436.

32. Fan F, Bradley RS, Rawlins MA. Climate change in the northeast United States: an analysis of the NARCCAP model simulations. J Geophys Res Atmos. 2015; 120: doi: 10.1002/2015JD023073

33. Stange EL, Ayers MP. Climate change impacts: insects. Encyclopedia of Life Sciences. 2010; Available from: https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470015902.a0022555.

34. Taylor LR. Analysis of the effect of temperature on insects in flight. J Anim Ecol. 1963; 32(1): 99–117.

35. McIntyre NE. Ecology of urban arthropods: a review and a call to action. Ann Entomol Soc Am. 2000; 93(4): 825–835.

36. Elkins N. Weather and bird behaviour, 3rd ed. London: T & A D Poyser; 2004.

37. Pipoly I, Bokony V, Seress G, Szabo K, Liker A. Effects of extreme weather on reproductive success in a temperate-breeding songbird. PLoS One. 2013; 8(11): e80033. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0080033 24224033

38. Dawson RD, Lawrie CC, O’Brien EL. The importance of microclimate variation in determining size, growth, and survival of avian offspring: experimental evidence from a cavity nesting passerine. Oecologia. 2005; 144: 499–507. doi: 10.1007/s00442-005-0075-7 15891832

39. Ju RT, Zhu HY, Gao L, Xhou XH, Li B. Increases in both temperature means and extremes likely facilitate invasive herbivore outbreaks. Sci Rep. 2015; 5: 15715. doi: 10.1038/srep15715 26502826

40. Thompson RM, Beardall J, Beringer J, Grace M, Sardina P. Means and extremes: building variability into community-level climate change experiments. Ecol Lett. 2013; 16: 799–806. doi: 10.1111/ele.12095 23438320

41. Zuckerberg B., Woods AM, Porter WF. Poleward shifts in breeding bird distributions in New York State. Glob Chang Biol. 2009; 15(8): 1866–1883.

42. Jetz W, Wilcove DS, Dobson AP. Projected impacts of climate and land-use change on the global diversity of birds. PLoS Biol. 2007; 5(6): e157. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.0050157 17550306

43. Joosten H, Clarke D. Wise use of mires and peatlands: background and principles including a framework for decision-making. Greifswald: International Mire Conservation Group; 2002.

44. Hayhoe K, Wake CP, Huntington TG, Luo L, Schwartz MD, Sheffield J, et al. Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the U.S. Northeast. Clim Dyn. 2006; 28(4): 381–407.

45. Pellerin S, Lavoie C. Reconstructing the recent dynamics of mires using a multitechnique approach. Ecology. 2003; 91(6): 1008–1021.

46. Berg E, Hillman KM, Dial R, DeRuwe A. Recent woody invasions of wetlands on the Kenai peninsula lowlands, south-central Alaska: a major regime shift after 18,000 years of wet Sphagnum-sedge peat recruitment. Can J For Res. 2009; 39: 2033–2046.

47. Holmgren M, Lin CY, Murillo JE, Nieuwenhuis A, Penninkhof J, Sanders N, et al. Positive shrub tree interactions facilitate woody encroachment in boreal peatlands. Ecology. 2015; 103(1): 58–66.

48. Hanski I. Metapopulation dynamics. Nature. 1998; 396: 41–49.

49. Semlitsch RD, Bodie JR. Are small, isolated wetlands expendable? Conserv Biol. 1998; 12(5): 1129–1133.

50. Pulliam HR. Sources, sinks, and population regulation. Am Nat. 1988; 132(5): 652–661.

51. Ross AM, Johnson G, Gibbs JP. Spruce grouse decline in maturing lowland boreal forests of New York. For Ecol Manage. 2016; 359: 118–125.


Článek vyšel v časopise

PLOS One


2019 Číslo 10
Nejčtenější tento týden
Nejčtenější v tomto čísle
Kurzy

Zvyšte si kvalifikaci online z pohodlí domova

KOST
Koncepce osteologické péče pro gynekology a praktické lékaře
nový kurz
Autoři: MUDr. František Šenk

Sekvenční léčba schizofrenie
Autoři: MUDr. Jana Hořínková

Hypertenze a hypercholesterolémie – synergický efekt léčby
Autoři: prof. MUDr. Hana Rosolová, DrSc.

Svět praktické medicíny 5/2023 (znalostní test z časopisu)

Imunopatologie? … a co my s tím???
Autoři: doc. MUDr. Helena Lahoda Brodská, Ph.D.

Všechny kurzy
Kurzy Podcasty Doporučená témata Časopisy
Přihlášení
Zapomenuté heslo

Zadejte e-mailovou adresu, se kterou jste vytvářel(a) účet, budou Vám na ni zaslány informace k nastavení nového hesla.

Přihlášení

Nemáte účet?  Registrujte se

#ADS_BOTTOM_SCRIPTS#