The long-run effects of secondary school track assignment


Autoři: Lex Borghans aff001;  Ron Diris aff001;  Wendy Smits aff002;  Jannes de Vries aff003
Působiště autorů: Department of Economics, Maastricht University, Maastricht, the Netherlands aff001;  Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA), Maastricht, the Netherlands aff002;  Statistics Netherlands, Heerlen, the Netherlands aff003
Vyšlo v časopise: PLoS ONE 14(10)
Kategorie: Research Article
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0215493

Souhrn

This study analyzes the long-run effects of secondary school track assignment for students at the achievement margin. Theoretically, track assignment maximizes individual outcomes when thresholds between tracks are set at the level of the indifferent student, and any other thresholds would imply that students at or around the margin are better off by switching tracks. We exploit non-linearities in the probability of track assignment across achievement to empirically identify the effect of track assignment on educational attainment and wages of students in the Netherlands, who can be assigned to four different tracks. We find that attending higher tracks leads to increases in years of schooling by around 1.5 years for students at the lowest and the highest choice margin, and wage gains of around 15% and 5%, respectively. For the margin between the two middle tracks, attending the higher of the two tracks has no effect on educational attainment and decreases wages by around 12%. The negative returns for the medium margin and the relatively low returns for the higher margin (compared to the required educational investments) are partly mediated by motivation and study choice.

Klíčová slova:

Educational attainment – Children – Jobs – Labor markets – Language – Salaries – Schools – Teachers


Zdroje

1. Figlio DN, Page ME. School Choice and the Distributional Effects of Ability Tracking: Does Separation Increase Inequality? Journal of Urban Economics. 2002;51(3):497–514.

2. Hanushek EA, Woessmann L. Does Educational Tracking Affect Performance and Inequality? Differences-in-Differences Evidence Across Countries. Economic Journal. 2006;116(510):63–76. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2006.01076.x

3. Jakubowski M. Institutional Tracking and Achievement Growth: Exploring Difference-in-Differences Approach to PIRLS, TIMSS, and PISA Data. In: Dronkers J, editor. Quality and Inequality of Education: Cross-National Perspectives. Springer Netherlands; 2010. p. 41–81.

4. Pekkarinen T, Uusitalo R, Kerr S. School tracking and intergenerational income mobility: Evidence from the Finnish comprehensive school reform. Journal of Public Economics. 2009;93(7-8):965–973. doi: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2009.04.006

5. Pekkala Kerr S, Pekkarinen T, Uusitalo R. School tracking and development of cognitive skills. Journal of Labor Economics. 2013;31(3):577–602. doi: 10.1086/669493

6. Duflo E, Dupas P, Kremer M. Peer Effects, Teacher Incentives, and the Impact of Tracking: Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation in Kenya. American Economic Review. 2011;101(5):1739–74. doi: 10.1257/aer.101.5.1739

7. Spera C, Wentzel KR, Matto HC. Parental Aspirations for Their Children’s Educational Attainment: Relations to Ethnicity, Parental Education, Children’s Academic Performance, and Parental Perceptions of School Climate. Journal of Youth Adolescence. 2009;38(8):1140–1152. doi: 10.1007/s10964-008-9314-7

8. Solnick SJ, Hong L, Hemenway D. Positional goods in the United States and China. The Journal of Socio-Economics. 2007;36(4):537–545. doi: 10.1016/j.socec.2006.12.012

9. Dunning D, Heath C, Suls JM. Flawed self-assessment: Implications for health, education, and the workplace. Psychological science in the public interest. 2004;5(3):69–106. doi: 10.1111/j.1529-1006.2004.00018.x 26158995

10. Kornfeld M, Ochsen C. Student assessment and grade retention: evidence from a natural experiment. Education Economics. 2017;25(2):127–141. doi: 10.1080/09645292.2016.1199660

11. Carneiro P, Heckman JJ, Vytlacil EJ. Estimating Marginal Returns to Education. American Economic Review. 2011;101(6):2754–2781. doi: 10.1257/aer.101.6.2754 25110355

12. Malamud O, Pop-Eleches C. School tracking and access to higher education among disadvantaged groups. Journal of Public Economics. 2011;95(11-12):1538–1549. doi: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2011.03.006

13. Hall C. The Effects of Tracking in Upper Secondary School: Evidence from a Large-Scale Pilot Scheme. Journal of Human Resources. 2012;47(1):237–269. doi: 10.3368/jhr.47.1.237

14. Hanushek EA, Schwerdt G, Woessmann L, Zhang L. General education, vocational education, and labor-market outcomes over the lifecycle. Journal of Human Resources. 2017;52(1):48–87. doi: 10.3368/jhr.52.1.0415-7074R

15. Dustmann C, Puhani PA, Schönberg U. The Long-term Effects of Early Track Choice. The Economic Journal. 2017;127(603):1348–1380. doi: 10.1111/ecoj.12419

16. Inspectie van het Onderwijs. Aansluiting voortgezet onderwijs op het basisonderwijs. Utrecht: Inspectie van het Onderwijs; 2007.

17. Driessen G, Van der Werf G. Het functioneren van het voortgezet onderwijs. Beschrijving steekproef en psychometrische kwaliteit instrumententen. RION/ITS, Groningen/Nijmegen; 1991.

18. Statistics Netherlands. Schoolloopbanen en achtergrond van leerlingen: cohort 1989. Deel 1: instroom. The Hague: Statistics Netherlands; 1991.

19. Ekeland I, Heckman JJ, Nesheim L. Identification and Estimation of Hedonic Models. Journal of Political Economy. 2004;112(S1):S60–S109. Paper in Honor of Sherwin Rosen: A Supplement to Volume 112. doi: 10.1086/379947

20. Imbens G, Kalyanaraman K. Optimal Bandwidth Choice for the Regression Discontinuity Estimator. Review of Economic Studies. 2011;79(3):933–959. doi: 10.1093/restud/rdr043

21. Hoxby C. Peer Effects in the Classroom: Learning from Gender and Race Variation. NBER; 2000 7867.

22. Almlund M, Duckworth AL, Heckman JJ, Kautz TD. Personality Psychology and Economics. In: Handbook of the Economics of Education. vol. 4. Amsterdam: Elsevier; 2011. p. 1–181.

23. Duckworth AL, Peterson C, Matthews MD, Kelly DR. Grit: Perseverance and Passion for Long-Term Goals. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 2007 June;92(6):1087–1101. doi: 10.1037/0022-3514.92.6.1087 17547490

24. Angrist JD, Krueger AB. Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings? Quarterly Journal of Economics. 1991;106(4):979–1014.

25. Card D. The Causal Effect of Education on Earnings. In: Ashenfelter O,Card D, editors. Handbook of Labor Economics. vol. 5. New York: North-Holland; 1999. p. 1801–1863.

26. Harmon C, Oosterbeek H, Walker I. The Returns to Education: Microeconomics. Journal of Economic Surveys. 2003;17(2):115–141. doi: 10.1111/1467-6419.00191

27. Carneiro P, Hansen K, Heckman JJ. Estimating Distributions of Treatment Effects with an Application to the Returns to Schooling and Measurement of the Effects of Uncertainty on College Choice. International Economic Review. 2003;44(2):361–422. doi: 10.1111/1468-2354.t01-1-00074

28. OECD. Education at a Glance 2010: OECD Indicators. Paris: OECD publishing; 2010.

29. Goos M, Manning A, Salomons A. Job Polarization in Europe. American Economic Review. 2009;99(2):58–63. doi: 10.1257/aer.99.2.58

30. Oster E. Unobservable selection and coefficient stability: Theory and evidence. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics. 2019;37(2):187–204. doi: 10.1080/07350015.2016.1227711

31. Elsner B, Isphording IE. A big fish in a small pond: Ability rank and human capital investment. Journal of Labor Economics. 2017;35(3):787–828. doi: 10.1086/690714


Článek vyšel v časopise

PLOS One


2019 Číslo 10