The effect of bigger human bodies on the future global calorie requirements


Autoři: Lutz Depenbusch aff001;  Stephan Klasen aff001
Působiště autorů: Faculty of Economics, University of Goettingen, Goettingen, Germany aff001;  World Vegetable Center - East and Southeast Asia Regional Office, Bangkhen, Bangkok, Thailand aff002
Vyšlo v časopise: PLoS ONE 14(12)
Kategorie: Research Article
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0223188

Souhrn

Existing studies show how population growth and rising incomes will cause a massive increase in the future global demand for food. We add to the literature by estimating the potential effect of increases in human weight, caused by rising BMI and height, on future calorie requirements. Instead of using a market based approach, the estimations are solely based on human energy requirements for maintenance of weight. We develop four different scenarios to show the effect of increases in human height and BMI. In a world where the weight per age-sex group would stay stable, we project calorie requirements to increases by 61.05 percent between 2010 and 2100. Increases in BMI and height could add another 18.73 percentage points to this. This additional increase amounts to more than the combined calorie requirements of India and Nigeria in 2010. These increases would particularly affect Sub-Saharan African countries, which will already face massively rising calorie requirements due to the high population growth. The stark regional differences call for policies that increase food access in currently economically weak regions. Such policies should shift consumption away from energy dense foods that promote overweight and obesity, to avoid the direct burden associated with these conditions and reduce the increases in required calories. Supplying insufficient calories would not solve the problem but cause malnutrition in populations with weak access to food. As malnutrition is not reducing but promoting rises in BMI levels, this might even aggravate the situation.

Klíčová slova:

Adults – Age groups – Body Mass Index – India – Meat – Mexican people – Nigeria – Population growth


Zdroje

1. Alexandratos N, Bruinsma J. World Agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 Revision. ESA Working Paper. 2012;12(03).

2. Willett W, Rockström J, Loken B, Springmann M, Lang T, Vermeulen S, et al. Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems. The Lancet. 2019;393(10170):447–492. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31788-4

3. KC KB, Dias GM, Veeramani A, Swanton CJ, Fraser D, Steinke D, et al. When too much isn’t enough: Does current food production meet global nutritional needs? PLoS ONE. 2018;13(10). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0205683

4. FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, and WHO. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2018. Building climate resilience for food security and nutrition. Rome: FAO; 2018.

5. Springmann M, Clark M, Mason-D’Croz D, Wiebe K, Bodirsky BL, Lassaletta L, et al. Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits. Nature. 2018;562(7728):519–525. doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0594-0 30305731

6. NCD Risk Factor Collaboration. Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants. The Lancet. 2016;387(10026):1377–1396. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30054-X

7. Popkin BM, Adair LS, Ng SW. Global nutrition transition and the pandemic of obesity in developing countries. Nutrition reviews. 2012;70(1):3–21. doi: 10.1111/j.1753-4887.2011.00456.x 22221213

8. Malik VS, Willett WC, Hu FB. Global obesity: trends, risk factors and policy implications. Nature Reviews Endocrinology. 2013;9(1):13–27. doi: 10.1038/nrendo.2012.199 23165161

9. Walpole SC, Prieto-Merino D, Edwards P, Cleland J, Stevens G, Roberts I. The weight of nations: an estimation of adult human biomass. BMC public health. 2012;12:439. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-12-439 22709383

10. Valin H, Sands RD, van der Mensbrugghe D, Nelson GC, Ahammad H, Blanc E, et al. The future of food demand: Understanding differences in global economic models. Agricultural Economics. 2014;45(1):51–67. doi: 10.1111/agec.12089

11. Robinson S, Mason-D’Croz D, Sulser T, Islam S, Robertson R, Zhu T, et al. The international model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade (IMPACT): model description for version 3. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1483. 2015.

12. Hiç C, Pradhan P, Rybski D, Kropp JP. Food surplus and its climate burdens. Environmental science & technology. 2016;50(8):4269–4277. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.5b05088

13. NCD Risk Factor Collaboration. A century of trends in adult human height. eLife. 2016;5:e13410. doi: 10.7554/eLife.13410 27458798

14. Basu A. Forecasting distribution of body mass index in the United States: is there more room for growth? Medical Decision Making. 2010;30(3):E1–E11. doi: 10.1177/0272989X09351749 19940085

15. Haby MM, Markwick A, Peeters A, Shaw J, Vos T. Future predictions of body mass index and overweight prevalence in Australia, 2005–2025. Health promotion international. 2011;27(2):250–260. doi: 10.1093/heapro/dar036 21680599

16. Wang YC, Colditz GA, Kuntz KM. Forecasting the obesity epidemic in the aging US population. Obesity. 2007;15(11):2855–2865. doi: 10.1038/oby.2007.339 18070778

17. Sassi F, Devaux M, Cecchini M, Rusticelli E. The Obesity Epidemic: Analysis of Past and Projected Future Trends in Selected OECD Countries. OECD Health Working Papers. 2009;(45).

18. Ahmad OB, Boschi-Pinto C, Lopez AD, Murray CJ, Lozano R, Inoue M. Age Standardization of Rates: A New WHO Standard. GPE Discussion Paper Series. 2001;(31).

19. James WPT, Schofield EC. Human energy requirements. A manual for planners and nutritionists. Oxford University Press; 1990.

20. Strauss J, Witoelar F, Sikoki B. The Fifth Wave of the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS5): Overview and Field Report. RAND Labor & Population. 2016;(WR-1143/1-NIA/NICHD).

21. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)/National Center for Health Statistics. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Data; 2013.

22. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision: DVD Edition. New York: United Nations; 2015.

23. de Onis M, Onyango AW, Borghi E, Siyam A, Nishida C, Siekmann J. Development of a WHO growth reference for school-aged children and adolescents. Bulletin of the World Health Organization. 2007;85(09):660–667. doi: 10.2471/BLT.07.043497 18026621

24. Uauy R, Kain J, Mericq V, Rojas J, Corvalán C. Nutrition, child growth, and chronic disease prevention. Annals of Medicine. 2008;40(1):11–20. doi: 10.1080/07853890701704683 18246473

25. FAO/WHO/UNU. Human energy requirements: Report of a joint FAO/WHO/UNU expert consultation Rome, 17–24 October 2001. FAO food and nutrition technical report series. 2004;1.

26. US Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Nutrient Data Laboratory. USDA National Nutrient Database for Standard Reference: Release 28 (Slightly revised): Version Current: May 2016; 2016. Available from: http://www.ars.usda.gov/ba/bhnrc/ndl.

27. FAO Statistics Division. Food Balance sheets; 2017. Available from: http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/FBS.

28. FAO Agriculture and Economic Development Analysis Division. Meeting the 2015 international hunger targets: taking stock of uneven progress. Rome: FAO; 2015.

29. Forouzanfar MH, Afshin A, Alexander LT, Anderson HR, Bhutta ZA, Biryukov S, et al. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. The Lancet. 2016;388(10053):1659–1724. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31679-8.

30. Gustavsson J, Cederberg C, Sonesson U. Global food losses and food waste: Extent, causes and prevention; study conducted for the International Congress Save Food! at Interpack 2011, [16–17 May], Düsseldorf, Germany. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; 2011.

31. WHO/FAO/UNU. Protein and amino acid requirements in human nutrition: Report of a joint WHO/FAO/UNU Expert Consultation; [Geneva, 9–16 April 2002]. vol. 935 of WHO technical report series. Geneva: WHO; 2007.


Článek vyšel v časopise

PLOS One


2019 Číslo 12