Seasonality of deaths with respect to age and cause in Chitral District Pakistan

Autoři: Muhammad Asif aff001;  Khalid Nawaz aff001;  Zafar Zaheer aff003;  Helene Thygesen aff004;  Amani Abu-Shaheen aff005;  Muhammad Riaz aff001
Působiště autorů: Department of Statistics, University of Malakand, Dir (L), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan aff001;  Department of Statistics, Shaheed Banazir University, Sheringal, Pakistan aff002;  Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan aff003;  Department of Conservation, Hamilton, New Zealand aff004;  Research Centre, King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia aff005
Vyšlo v časopise: PLoS ONE 14(12)
Kategorie: Research Article



Seasonal variability in mortality has been studied in various regions globally. Proper evaluation of seasonally fluctuating mortality is important to establish effective public health measures. We investigated the overall, age-specific, and cause-specific seasonality of deaths in Chitral District in Pakistan.


Data on 2577 deaths were provided by the Agha Khan Health Support Program. Seasonal mortality patterns concerning age and causes were examined using the X-12 ARIMA pseudo-additive decomposition method.


Of the total deceased, 59.6% were males. The proportion of deceased males was significantly higher than the female (40.4%, p< 0.001). The average age at death was 57.7 years (SD = 28.7). On average, approximately 43 deaths occurred each month. More than 10% of the deaths occurred in children less than 5-years-of-age. Among all the causes of death, the most frequent was cardiovascular disease (n = 666, 25.8%) followed by respiratory disease (n = 482, 18.7%). Significant seasonality in the overall deaths was evident, with a peak in winter. Deaths in people ≥ 55-years-of-age were significantly seasonal and peaked in winter. Deaths due to cardiovascular, respiratory, and kidney related diseases were also significantly seasonal with winter peaks. Further, deaths due to external causes were significantly seasonal with summer peak.


In the winter season, all-cause, except external, and age-specific mortality peaks in Chitral District, Pakistan. Deaths due to external causes and cardiovascular, respiratory, and kidney related diseases were significant seasonal effects.

Klíčová slova:

Cardiovascular diseases – Death rates – Kidneys – Pakistan – Respiratory infections – Seasons – Summer – Winter


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2019 Číslo 12
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