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People versus machines in the UK: Minimum wages, labor reallocation and automatable jobs


Autoři: Grace Lordan aff001
Působiště autorů: Department of Psychological and Behavioural Science, The London School of Economics and Political Science, London, United Kingdom aff001
Vyšlo v časopise: PLoS ONE 14(12)
Kategorie: Research Article
doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0224789

Souhrn

This study follows the Lordan and Neumark (2018) analysis for the US, and examines whether minimum wage increases affect employment opportunities in automatable jobs in the UK for low-skilled low-wage workers. Overall, I find that increasing the minimum wage decreases the share of automatable employment held by low-skilled low-wage workers, and increases the likelihood that workers in automatable jobs become dis-employed. On aggregate the effect size is modest, but I also provide evidence that these effects are larger in more recent years. The study also highlights significant heterogeneity by industry and demographic group, including more substantive adverse effects for older low-skilled workers in manufacturing, as well as effects at the intensive margin.

Klíčová slova:

Communication in health care – Employment – Finance – Jobs – Minimum wage – Money supply and banking – Professions – Salaries


Zdroje

1. Hafner M, Taylor J, Pankowska P, Stepanek M, Nataraj S, van Stolk C. The Impact of The National Minimum Wage On Employment: A Meta-Analysis RAND Europe. 2017. Available at: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1800/RR1807/RA ND_RR1807.pdf.

2. de Linde M, Megan, Stanley TD, Doucouliagos H. Does the UK Minimum Wage Reduce Employment? A Meta-Regression Analysis. British Journal of Industrial Relations. 2014; 52 (3): 499–520.

3. Dickens R, Riley R, Wilkinson D. A Re‐examination of the Impact of the UK National Minimum Wage on Employment. Economica, 2015; 82 (328): 841–864.

4. Bewley H, Wilkinson D. The Impact of the National Minimum Wage on Employment and Hours. National Institute of Economic and Social Research. 2015. February.

5. Fidrmuc J, Tena JD. National Minimum Wage and Employment of Young Workers in the UK. CESifo Working Paper Series. 2013; No 4286, June.

6. Machin S and Wilson J. Minimum wages in a low-wage labour market: Care homes in the UK. Economic Journal. 2014. 114 (494): C102–C109.

7. Papps K, Gregg P. Beyond the wage: Changes in employment and compensation patterns in response to the national minimum wage. Low Pay Commission. 2014.

8. Simon KI, Kaestner R. Do Minimum Wages Affect Non-Wage Job Attributes? Evidence On Fringe Benefits. Industrial and Labor Relations Review. 2014. 58 (1): 52–70.

9. DiNardo J, Fortin N, Lemieux T. Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages, 1973–1992: A Semiparametric Approach. Econometrica, 1996; 64 (5): 1001–44.

10. Autor D H, Manning A, Smith CL. The Contribution of the Minimum Wage to US Wage Inequality over Three Decades: A Reassessment. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics. 2016; 8 (1): 58–99.

11. Lordan G, Neumark D, People Versus Machines: The Impact of Minimum Wages on Automatable Jobs. Labor Economics 2018; 52: 40–53.

12. Aaronson D, Phelan BJ. Wage Shocks and the Technological Substitution of Low-Wage Jobs. The Economic Journal. 2019. 129 (617): 1–34.

13. Graetz G, Michaels G. Robots At Work” CEP Discussion Paper. 2015; No 1335, March.

14. Georg G, Michaels G. Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?” American Economic Review. 2017; 107 (5): 168–73.

15. Josten C and Lordan G. Robots at Work: Automatable and Non-Automatable Jobs. The Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics edited by Zimmerrmann K. 2019. Forthcoming.

16. Lordan G. 2018. Robots at work: a report on automatable and non-automatable employment shares in Europe. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxenbourg: ISBN 9789279802362.

17. Autor DH., Manning A, Smith CL. The Contribution of the Minimum Wage to US Wage Inequality over Three Decades: A Reassessment. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics. 2016. 8 (1): 58–99.

18. Autor DH, Dorn D. The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market. American Economic Review. 2013. 103 (5): 1553–1597.

19. Lordan G Pischke JS. Does Rosie like riveting? Male and female occupational choices. NBER working paper. 2016. No. 22495, August.


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