A novel scoring system to predict the requirement for surgical intervention in victims of motor vehicle crashes: Development and validation using independent cohorts


Autoři: Ryo Yamamoto aff001;  Tomohiro Kurihara aff001;  Junichi Sasaki aff001
Působiště autorů: Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku, Tokyo, Japan aff001
Vyšlo v časopise: PLoS ONE 14(12)
Kategorie: Research Article
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0226282

Souhrn

Background

Given that there are still considerable number of facilities which lack surgical specialists round the clock across the world, the ability to estimate the requirement for emergency surgery in victims of motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) can ensure appropriate resource allocation. In this study, a surgical intervention in victims of MVC (SIM) score was developed and validated, using independent patient cohorts.

Methods

We retrospectively identified MVC victims in a nationwide trauma registry (2004–2016). Adults ≥ 15 years who presented with palpable pulse were included. Patients with missing data on the type/date of surgery were excluded. Patient were allocated to development or validation cohorts based on the date of injury. After missing values were imputed, predictors of the need for emergency thoracotomy and/or laparotomy were identified with multivariate logistic regression, and scores were then assigned using odds ratios. The SIM score was validated with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and calibration plots of SIM score-derived probability and observed rates of emergency surgery.

Results

We assigned 13,328 and 12,348 patients to the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Age, motor vehicle collision and vital signs on hospital arrival were identified as independent predictors for emergency thoracotomy and/or laparotomy, and SIM score was developed as 0–9 scales. The score has a good discriminatory power (AUROC = 0.79; 95% confidence interval = 0.77–0.81), and both estimated and observed rates of emergency surgery increased stepwise from 1% at a score ≤ 1 to almost 40% at a score ≥ 8 with linear calibration plots.

Conclusions

The SIM score was developed and validated to accurately estimate the need for emergent thoracotomy and/or laparotomy in MVC victims.

Klíčová slova:

Critical care and emergency medicine – Road traffic collisions – Surgical and invasive medical procedures – Trauma surgery – Traumatic injury – Hemostatics – Thoracotomy – Laparotomy


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Článek vyšel v časopise

PLOS One


2019 Číslo 12