Is half the world’s population really below ‘replacement-rate’?

Autoři: Stuart Gietel-Basten aff001;  Sergei Scherbov aff002
Působiště autorů: Division of Social Science, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, P.R. China aff001;  World Population Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria aff002
Vyšlo v časopise: PLoS ONE 14(12)
Kategorie: Research Article
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0224985


A perennial activity of demographers is to estimate the percentage of the world’s population which is above or below the ‘replacement rate of fertility’ [RRF]. However, most attempts to do so have been based upon, at best, oversimplified, or at worst, simply incorrect assumptions about what RRF actually is. The objective of this paper is to calculate the proportion of the world’s population living in countries with observed period total fertility rates [TFR] below the respective calculated RRF, rather than the commonly used measure of 2.1. While the differences between comparing TFR to 2.1 or RRF are relatively modest in many periods when considering populations at the national level, a significant difference can be observed in the near future based upon India’s fertility and mortality trajectories. Our exercise represents a means of ‘correcting the record’ using the most up-to-date evidence and using the correct protocol.

Klíčová slova:

Fertility rates – Child health – Children – India – Indonesia – Sex ratio – Sierra Leone – Tamil people


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Článek vyšel v časopise


2019 Číslo 12