Coupling environment and physiology to predict effects of climate change on the taxonomic and functional diversity of fish assemblages in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

Autoři: Anielly Galego de Oliveira aff001;  Dayani Bailly aff001;  Fernanda A. S. Cassemiro aff002;  Edivando Vitor do Couto aff003;  Nick Bond aff004;  Dean Gilligan aff005;  Thiago F. Rangel aff002;  Angelo Antonio Agostinho aff001;  Mark J. Kennard aff006
Působiště autorů: Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia de Ambientes Aquáticos Continentais, Núcleo de Pesquisas em Ictiologia, Limnologia e Aquicultura (NUPÉLIA), Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Maringá, PR, Brazil aff001;  Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e Evolução, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, GO, Brazil aff002;  Universidade Tecnológica Federal do Paraná, Campo Mourão, PR, Brazil aff003;  Centre for Freshwater Ecosystems, La Trobe University, Wodonga, Victoria, Australia aff004;  NSW Department of Primary Industries–Fisheries, Batemans Bay Fisheries Office, Batemans Bay, New South Wales, Australia aff005;  Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Nathan, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia aff006
Vyšlo v časopise: PLoS ONE 14(11)
Kategorie: Research Article
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0225128


This study uses species distribution modeling and physiological and functional traits to predict the impacts of climate change on native freshwater fish in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. We modelled future changes in taxonomic and functional diversity in 2050 and 2080 for two scenarios of carbon emissions, identifying areas of great interest for conservation. Climatic-environmental variables were used to model the range of 23 species of native fish under each scenario. The consensus model, followed by the physiological filter of lethal temperature was retained for interpretation. Our study predicts a severe negative impact of climate change on both taxonomic and functional components of ichthyofauna of the Murray-Darling Basin. There was a predicted marked contraction of species ranges under both scenarios. The predictions showed loss of climatically suitable areas, species and functional characters. There was a decrease in areas with high values of functional richness, dispersion and uniqueness. Some traits are predicted to be extirpated, especially in the most pessimistic scenario. The climatic refuges for fish fauna are predicted to be in the southern portion of the basin, in the upper Murray catchment. Incorporating future predictions about the distribution of ichthyofauna in conservation management planning will enhance resilience to climate change.

Klíčová slova:

Anthropogenic climate change – Australia – Climate change – Fish physiology – Freshwater fish – Rivers – Species diversity – Taxonomy


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