Recent climate-driven ecological change across a continent as perceived through local ecological knowledge


Autoři: Suzanne M. Prober aff001;  Nat Raisbeck-Brown aff001;  Natasha B. Porter aff001;  Kristen J. Williams aff002;  Zoe Leviston aff003;  Fiona Dickson aff004
Působiště autorů: CSIRO Land and Water, Wembley, Western Australia, Australia aff001;  CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia aff002;  School of Arts and Humanities, Edith Cowan University, Joondalup, Western Australia, Australia aff003;  Department of the Environment and Energy, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia aff004
Vyšlo v časopise: PLoS ONE 14(11)
Kategorie: Research Article
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0224625

Souhrn

Documenting effects of climate change is an important step towards designing mitigation and adaptation responses. Impacts of climate change on terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems have been well-documented in the Northern Hemisphere, but long-term data to detect change in the Southern Hemisphere are limited, and some types of change are generally difficult to measure. Here we present a novel approach using local ecological knowledge to facilitate a continent-scale view of climate change impacts on terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems that people have perceived in Australia. We sought local knowledge using a national web-based survey, targeting respondents with close links to the environment (e.g. farmers, ecologists), and using a custom-built mapping tool to ask respondents to describe and attribute recent changes they had observed within an area they knew well. Results drawn from 326 respondents showed that people are already perceiving simple and complex climate change impacts on hundreds of species and ecosystems across Australia, significantly extending the detail previously reported for the continent. While most perceived trends and attributions remain unsubstantiated, >35 reported anecdotes concurred with examples in the literature, and >20 were reported more than once. More generally, anecdotes were compatible with expectations from global climate change impact frameworks, including examples across the spectrum from organisms (e.g. increased mortality in >75 species), populations (e.g. changes in recruitment or abundance in >100 species, phenological change in >50 species), and species (e.g. >80 species newly arriving or disappearing), to communities and landscapes (e.g. >50 examples of altered ecological interactions). The overarching pattern indicated by the anecdotes suggests that people are more often noticing climate change losers (typically native species) than winners in their local areas, but with observations of potential ‘adaptation in action’ via compositional and phenological change and through arrivals and range shifts (particularly for native birds and exotic plants). A high proportion of climate change-related anecdotes also involved cumulative or interactive effects of land use. We conclude that targeted elicitation of local ecological knowledge about climate change impacts can provide a valuable complement to data-derived knowledge, substantially extending the volume of explicit examples and offering a foundation for further investigation.

Klíčová slova:

Australia – Biodiversity – Birds – Climate change – Ecosystems – Land use – Species interactions – Surveys


Zdroje

1. Bellard C, Bertelsmeier C, Leadley P, Thuiller W, Courchamp F. Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity. Ecology Letters. 2012;15(4):365–77. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01736.x 22257223

2. Harris RMB, Beaumont LJ, Vance TR, Tozer CR, Remenyi TA, Perkins-Kirkpatrick SE, et al. Biological responses to the press and pulse of climate trends and extreme events. Nature Climate Change. 2018;8(7):579–87.

3. Smith SJ, Edmonds J, Harlin CA, Mundra A, Calvin K. Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature change. Nature Climate Change. 2015;5(4):333–6.

4. Scheffers BR, De Meester L, Bridge TCL, Hoffmann AA, Pandolfi JM, Corlett RT, et al. The broad footprint of climate change from genes to biomes to people. Science. 2016;354(6313).

5. Parmesan C. Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics. 2006;37:637–69.

6. Walther GR. Community and ecosystem responses to recent climate change. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences. 2010;365:2019–24.

7. Pecl GT, Araujo MB, Bell JD, Blanchard J, Bonebrake TC, Chen IC, et al. Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being. Science. 2017;355(6332):1389–+.

8. Prober SM, Doerr VAJ, Broadhurst LM, Williams KJ, Dickson F. Shifting the conservation paradigm: a synthesis of options for renovating nature under climate change. Ecological Monographs. 2019;89(1).

9. Akerlof K, Maibach EW, Fitzgerald D, Cedeno AY, Neuman A. Do people "personally experience" global warming, and if so how, and does it matter? Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions. 2013;23(1):81–91.

10. Newell BR, McDonald RI, Brewer M, Hayes BK. The Psychology of Environmental Decisions. In: Gadgil A, Liverman DM, editors. Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 2014;39:443–67.

11. Oliver TH, Morecroft MD. Interactions between climate change and land use change on biodiversity: attribution problems, risks, and opportunities. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change. 2014;5(3):317–35.

12. Parmesan C, Duarte C, Poloczanska E, Richardson AJ, Singer MC. Commentary: Overstretching attribution. Nature Climate Change. 2011;1(1):2–4.

13. Reisinger AR, Kitching L, Chiew F, Hughes L, Newton PCD, Schuster SS, et al. Australasia. In: Barros VR, Field CB, Dokken DJ, al. e, editors. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Part B: Regional Aspects Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge, United Kingdom. 2014. p. 1371–438.

14. Chambers LE, Altwegg R, Barbraud C, Barnard P, Beaumont LJ, Crawford RJM, et al. Phenological Changes in the Southern Hemisphere. Plos One. 2013;8(10).

15. Beaumont LJ, McAllan IAW, Hughes L. A matter of timing: changes in the first date of arrival and last date of departure of Australian migratory birds. Global Change Biology. 2006;12(7):1339–54.

16. Cresswell ID, Murphy HT. Australia state of the environment 2016: biodiversity, independent report to the Australian Government Minister for the Environment and Energy. Canberra, Australia.

17. Chambers LE, Beaumont LJ, Hudson IL. Continental scale analysis of bird migration timing: influences of climate and life history traits-a generalized mixture model clustering and discriminant approach. Int J Biometeorol. 2014;58(6):1147–62. doi: 10.1007/s00484-013-0707-2 23900579

18. Hoffmann AA, Rymer PD, Byrne M, Ruthrof KX, Whinam J, McGeoch M, et al. Impacts of recent climate change on terrestrial flora and fauna: Some emerging Australian examples. Austral Ecology. 2019;44(1):3–27.

19. Aswani S, Lemahieu A, Sauer WHH. Global trends of local ecological knowledge and future implications. Plos One. 2018;13(4).

20. Bélisle AC, Asselin H, LeBlanc P, Gauthier S. Local knowledge in ecological modeling. Ecology and Society. 2018;23(2).

21. Pyhälä A, Fernandez-Llamazares A, Lehvavirta H, Byg A, Ruiz-Mallen I, Salpeteur M, et al. Global environmental change: local perceptions, understandings, and explanations. Ecology and Society. 2016;21(3). doi: 10.5751/ES-08482-210325 27695479

22. Marin A. Riders under storms: Contributions of nomadic herders' observations to analysing climate change in Mongolia. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions. 2010;20(1):162–76.

23. Parmesan C, Burrows MT, Duarte CM, Poloczanska ES, Richardson AJ, Schoeman DS, et al. Beyond climate change attribution in conservation and ecological research. Ecology Letters. 2013;16:58–71. doi: 10.1111/ele.12098 23679010

24. Leviston Z, Greenhill M, Walker I. Australians attitudes to climate change and adaptation: 2010–2014. Perth, Australia: CSIRO; 2015.

25. Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO. State of the Climate. 2018. http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/State-of-the-Climate-2018.pdf

26. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF). Terrestrial Report Card 2013: Climate change impacts and adaptation on Australian biodiversity. https://terrestrialclimatechange.org.au/index.html 2013, accessed 18 March 2019.

27. Council of Heads of Australian Herbaria (CHAH). Australian Plant Census. 2019. https://biodiversity.org.au/nsl/services/apc2019 [January 2019].

28. Australian Biological Resources Study (ABRS). Australian Faunal Directory. 2019. https://biodiversity.org.au/afd/search/names/2019. [May 2019].

29. Australian Bureau of Statitstics (ABS). Australian Population Grid 2016, 3218.0—Regional Population Growth. 2016. https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/3218.02016 [May 2019]

30. Challis A, Stevens JC, McGrath G, Miller BP. Plant and environmental factors associated with drought-induced mortality in two facultative phreatophytic trees. Plant and Soil. 2016;404(1–2):157–72.

31. Paap T, Brouwers NC, Burgess TI, Hardy GES. Importance of climate, anthropogenic disturbance and pathogens (Quambalaria coyrecup and Phytophthora spp.) on marri (Corymbia calophylla) tree health in southwest Western Australia. Annals of Forest Science. 2017;74(3).

32. Potts BM, Potts WC, Kantvilas G. The Miena cider gum, Eucalyptus gunnii subsp. divaricata (Myrtaceae): a taxon in rapid decline. Proceedings of the Royal Society of Tasmania 2001;135:57–61.

33. Close DC, Davidson NJ. Review of rural tree decline in a changing Australian climate. Tasforests. 2004;15:1–18.

34. Duke NC, Kovacs JM, Griffiths AD, Preece L, Hill DJE, van Oosterzee P, et al. Large-scale dieback of mangroves in Australia. Marine and Freshwater Research. 2017;68(10).

35. Mitchell PJ, O'Grady AP, Hayes KR, Pinkard EA. Exposure of trees to drought-induced die-off is defined by a common climatic threshold across different vegetation types. Ecology and Evolution. 2014;4:1088–101. doi: 10.1002/ece3.1008 24772285

36. Welbergen JA, Klose SM, Markus N, Eby P. Climate change and the effects of temperature extremes on Australian flying-foxes. Proc Biol Sci. 2008;275(1633):419–25. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2007.1385 18048286

37. Roe J, Georges A. Responses of freshwater turtles to drought: the past, present and implications for future climate change in Australia. In: Gow K, editor. Meltdown: Climate Change, Natural Disasters and other Catastrophes–Fears and Concerns for the Future. New York, USA: Nova Science Publishers Inc.; 2009. p. 175–90.

38. Mac Nally R, Bennett AF, Thomson JR, Radford JQ, Unmack G, Horrocks G, et al. Collapse of an avifauna: climate change appears to exacerbate habitat loss and degradation. Diversity and Distributions. 2009;15(4):720–30.

39. Seabrook L, McAlpine C, Baxter G, Rhodes J, Bradley A, Lunney D. Drought-driven change in wildlife distribution and numbers: a case study of koalas in south west Queensland. Wildlife Research. 2011;38(6):509–24.

40. Bice C, Hammer M, Wilson P, Zampatti B. Fish monitoring for the ‘Drought Action Plan for South Australian Murray-Darling Basin threatened freshwater fish populations’: Summary for 2010/11. Adelaide, Australia; 2011. Contract No.: SARDI Publication No. F2010/000647-2.

41. Skerratt LF, Berger L, Speare R, Cashins S, McDonald KR, Phillott AD, et al. Spread of chytridiomycosis has caused the rapid global decline and extinction of frogs. Ecohealth. 2007;4(2):125–34.

42. Reckless HJ, Murray M, Crowther MS. A review of climatic change as a determinant of the viability of koala populations. Wildlife Research. 2017;44(7):458–70.

43. McFarlane R, Becker N, Field H. Investigation of the Climatic and Environmental Context of Hendra Virus Spillover Events 1994–2010. Plos One. 2011;6(12).

44. Old JM, Sengupta C, Narayan E, Wolfenden J. Sarcoptic mange in wombats-A review and future research directions. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases. 2018;65(2):399–407. doi: 10.1111/tbed.12770 29150905

45. Vidler A. Buffalo fly zooms south. Farmonline National. 2011 March 11, 2011.

46. Klunzinger MW, Beatty SJ, Morgan DL, Thomson GJ, J. LA. Glochidia ecology in wild fish populations and laboratory determination of competent host fishes for an endemic freshwater mussel of south-western Australia. Australian Journal of Zoology. 2012;60:26–36.

47. Klunzinger MW, Beatty SJ, Morgan DL, Pinder AM, Lymbery AJ. Range decline and conservation status of Westralunio carteri Iredale, 1934 (Bivalvia: Hyriidae) from south-western Australia. Australian Journal of Zoology. 2015;63:127–35.

48. Bradstock R, Penman T, Boer M, Price O, Clarke H. Divergent responses of fire to recent warming and drying across south-eastern Australia. Glob Chang Biol. 2014;20(5):1412–28. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12449 24151212

49. Bowman DMJS, Prior LD, De Little SC. Retreating Melaleuca swamp forests in Kakadu National Park: Evidence of synergistic effects of climate change and past feral buffalo impacts. Austral Ecology. 2010;35(8):898–905.

50. Davis A, Taylor CE, Major RE. Do fire and rainfall drive spatial and temporal population shifts in parrots? A case study using urban parrot populations. Landscape and Urban Planning. 2011;100(3):295–301.

51. Roberts BJ, Catterall CP, Eby P, Kanowski J. Latitudinal range shifts in Australian flying-foxes: A re-evaluation. Austral Ecology. 2012;37(1):12–22.

52. Williamson GJ, Boggs GS, Bowman DMJS. Late 20th century mangrove encroachment in the coastal Australian monsoon tropics parallels the regional increase in woody biomass. Regional Environmental Change. 2011;11(1):19–27.

53. Bowman D, Murphy BP, Banfai DS. Has global environmental change caused monsoon rainforests to expand in the Australian monsoon tropics? Landscape Ecology. 2010;25(8):1247–60.

54. Beaumont LJ, Hartenthaler T, Keatley MR, Chambers LE. Shifting time: recent changes to the phenology of Australian species. Climate Research. 2015;63(3):203–14.

55. Keatley MR, Hudson IL. Detecting change in an Australian flowering record: Comparisons of linear regression and cumulative sum analysis change point analysis. Austral Ecology. 2012;37(7):825–35.

56. Rawal DS, Kasel S, Keatley MR, Nitschke CR. Climatic and photoperiodic effects on flowering phenology of select eucalypts from south-eastern Australia. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 2015;214:231–42.

57. Kearney MR, Briscoe NJ, Karoly DJ, Porter WP, Norgate M, Sunnucks P. Early emergence in a butterfly causally linked to anthropogenic warming. Biol Lett. 2010;6(5):674–7. doi: 10.1098/rsbl.2010.0053 20236964

58. Williams K, Prober S, Harwood T, Doerr V, Jeanneret T, Manion G, et al. Implications of Climate Change for Biodiversity: a Community-level Modelling Approach. Canberra, Australia: CSIRO Land and Water; 2014. Available from: www.AdaptNRM.org

59. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Cambridge, UK; 2007.

60. Sorte CJB, Ibanez I, Blumenthal DM, Molinari NA, Miller LP, Grosholz ED, et al. Poised to prosper? A cross-system comparison of climate change effects on native and non-native species performance. Ecology Letters. 2013;16(2):261–70. doi: 10.1111/ele.12017 23062213

61. Jaeschke A, Bittner T, Jentsch A, Beierkuhnlein C. The last decade in ecological climate change impact research: where are we now? Naturwissenschaften. 2014;101(1):1–9. doi: 10.1007/s00114-013-1132-4 24389537

62. Ujvari B, Shine R, Madsen T. How well do predators adjust to climate-mediated shifts in prey distribution? A study on Australian water pythons. Ecology. 2011;92(3):777–83. doi: 10.1890/10-1471.1 21608485

63. Klamt M, Thompson R, Davis J. Early response of the platypus to climate warming. Global Change Biology. 2011;17(10):3011–8.

64. Visoiu M, Whinam J. Extreme weather conditions correspond with localised vegetation death at Cradle Mountain, Tasmania. Ecological Management & Restoration. 2015;16(1):76–8.

65. Whinam J, Copson G. Sphagnum moss: an indicator of climate change in the sub-Antarctic. Polar Record. 2006;42(220):43–9.

66. Steffen W, Burbidge AA, Hughes L, Kitching R, Lindenmayer D, Musgrave W, et al. Australia’s Biodiversity and Climate Change: A Strategic Assessment of the Vulnerability of Austrqalia’s Biodiversity to Climate Change. A report to the Natural Resource Management Ministerial Council commissioned by the Australian Government. Melbourne, Australia; 2009.

67. Hoffmann AA, Weeks AR. Climatic selection on genes and traits after a 100 year-old invasion: a critical look at the temperate-tropical clines in Drosophila melanogaster from eastern Australia. Genetica. 2007;129(2):133–47. doi: 10.1007/s10709-006-9010-z 16955331

68. Gardner JL, Amano T, Backwell PRY, Ikin K, Sutherland WJ, Peters A. Temporal patterns of avian body size reflect linear size responses to broadscale environmental change over the last 50 years. Journal of Avian Biology. 2014;45(6):529–35.

69. Holleley CE, O'Meally D, Sarre SD, Marshall Graves JA, Ezaz T, Matsubara K, et al. Sex reversal triggers the rapid transition from genetic to temperature-dependent sex. Nature. 2015;523(7558):79–82. doi: 10.1038/nature14574 26135451

70. Guerin GR, Wen HX, Lowe AJ. Leaf morphology shift linked to climate change. Biology Letters. 2012;8(5):882–6. doi: 10.1098/rsbl.2012.0458 22764114

71. McLean EH, Prober SM, Stock WD, Steane DA, Potts BM, Vaillancourt RE, et al. Plasticity of functional traits varies clinally along a rainfall gradient in Eucalyptus tricarpa. Plant Cell and Environment. 2014;37(6):1440–51.

72. Kunda Z. The case for motivated reasoning. Psychological Bulletin. 1990;108:480–98. doi: 10.1037/0033-2909.108.3.480 2270237

73. Johnston A, Fink D, Hochachka WM, Kelling S, Isaac N. Estimates of observer expertise improve species distributions from citizen science data. Methods in Ecology and Evolution. 2018;9(1):88–97.

74. Prober SM, O'Connor MH, Walsh FJ. Australian Aboriginal Peoples' Seasonal Knowledge: a potential basis for shared understanding in environmental management. Ecology and Society. 2011;16(2).

75. Nicol S, Ward K, Stratford D, Joehnk KD, Chades I. Making the best use of experts' estimates to prioritise monitoring and management actions: A freshwater case study. J Environ Manage. 2018;215:294–304. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.03.068 29574207

76. Ferrier S, Jetz W, Scharlemann J. Biodiversity modelling as part of an observation system. In: Walters MB, Scholes RJ, editors. The GEO Handbook on Biodiversity Observation Networks. Cham: Springer International Publishing; 2017. p. 239–57.

77. Cleverly J, Eamus D, Edwards W, Grant M, Grundy MJ, Held A, et al. TERN, Australia's Land Observatory: addressing the global challenge of forecasting ecosystem responses to climate variability and change. Environmental Research Letters 2019;14:095004.

78. Rogers R, Wallner C, Goodwin B, Heitland W, Weisser WW, Brosius H-B. When do people take action? The importance of people’s observation that nature is changing for pro-environmental behavior within the field of impersonal, environmental risk. Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences. 2017;14(1):1–18.

79. Pascual U, Balvanera P, Diaz S, Pataki G, Roth E, Stenseke M, et al. Valuing nature's contributions to people: the IPBES approach. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability. 2017;26–27:7–16.

80. Prober SM, Williams KJ, Broadhurst LM, Doerr VAJ. Nature conservation and ecological restoration in a changing climate: what are we aiming for? The Rangeland Journal. 2017;39(6):477–86.

81. Albrecht GA. Solastalgia: A new concept in human health and identity. Philosophy Activism Nature. 2005;3:41–55.

82. Cunsolo A, Ellis NR. Ecological grief as a mental health response to climate change-related loss. Nature Climate Change. 2018;8(4):275–81.

83. Searle K, Gow K. Do concerns about climate change lead to distress? International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management. 2010;2(4):362–79.


Článek vyšel v časopise

PLOS One


2019 Číslo 11