Urban growth simulation in different scenarios using the SLEUTH model: A case study of Hefei, East China

Autoři: Yunqiang Liu aff001;  Long Li aff001;  Longqian Chen aff001;  Liang Cheng aff001;  Xisheng Zhou aff001;  Yifan Cui aff001;  Han Li aff001;  Weiqiang Liu aff001
Působiště autorů: School of Environmental Science and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, Jiangsu, China aff001;  Engineering Research Center of Ministry of Education for Mine Ecological Restoration, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, Jiangsu, China aff002;  Department of Geography, Earth System Science, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium aff003;  College of Yingdong Agricultural Science and Engineering, Shaoguan University, Shaoguan, Guangdong, China aff004
Vyšlo v časopise: PLoS ONE 14(11)
Kategorie: Research Article
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0224998


As uncontrolled urban growth has increasingly challenged the sustainable use of urban land, it is critically important to model urban growth from different perspectives. Using the SLEUTH (Slope, Land use, Exclusion, Urban, Transportation, and Hill-shade) model, the historical data of Hefei in 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 were collected and input to simulate urban growth from 2015 to 2040. Three different urban growth scenarios were considered, namely a historical growth scenario, an urban planning growth scenario, and a land suitability growth scenario. Prediction results show that by 2040 urban built-up land would increase to 1434 km2 in the historical growth scenario, to 1190 km2 in the urban planning growth scenario, and to 1217 km2 in the land suitability growth scenario. We conclude that (1) exclusion layers without effective limits might result in unreasonable prediction of future built-up land; (2) based on the general land use map, the urban growth prediction took the governmental policies into account and could reveal the development hotspots in urban planning; and (3) the land suitability scenario prediction was the result of the trade-off between ecological land and built-up land as it used the MCR -based (minimum cumulative resistance model) land suitability assessment result. It would help to form a compact urban space and avoid excessive protection of farmland and ecological land. Findings derived from this study may provide urban planners with interesting insights on formulating urban planning strategies.

Klíčová slova:

Grasslands – Land use – Roads – Simulation and modeling – Soil ecology – Urban areas – Urban ecology – Spreading centers


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2019 Číslo 11