Assessment of climate change impact on the malaria vector Anopheles hyrcanus, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma in the Vojvodina Province (Serbia) using data from a regional climate model


Autoři: Dragutin T. Mihailović aff001;  Dušan Petrić aff002;  Tamaš Petrović aff003;  Ivana Hrnjaković-Cvjetković aff004;  Vladimir Djurdjevic aff006;  Emilija Nikolić-Đorić aff007;  Ilija Arsenić aff001;  Mina Petrić aff008;  Gordan Mimić aff011;  Aleksandra Ignjatović-Ćupina aff002
Působiště autorů: Department of Field and Vegetable Crops, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia aff001;  Department of Plant and Environment Protection, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia aff002;  Department for virology, Scientific Veterinary Institute “Novi Sad”, Novi Sad, Serbia aff003;  Institute of Public Health of Vojvodina, Novi Sad, Serbia aff004;  Faculty of Medicine, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia aff005;  Institute of Meteorology, Faculty of Physics, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia aff006;  Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia aff007;  Avia-GIS NV, Zoersel, Belgium aff008;  Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia aff009;  Department of Physics and Astronomy, Faculty of Sciences, University of Gent, Gent, Belgium aff010;  BioSense Institute, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia aff011
Vyšlo v časopise: PLoS ONE 15(1)
Kategorie: Research Article
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0227679

Souhrn

Motivated by the One Health paradigm, we found the expected changes in temperature and UV radiation (UVR) to be a common trigger for enhancing the risk that viruses, vectors, and diseases pose to human and animal health. We compared data from the mosquito field collections and medical studies with regional climate model projections to examine the impact of climate change on the spreading of one malaria vector, the circulation of West Nile virus (WNV), and the incidence of melanoma. We analysed data obtained from ten selected years of standardised mosquito vector sampling with 219 unique location-year combinations, and 10 years of melanoma incidence. Trends in the observed data were compared to the climatic variables obtained by the coupled regional Eta Belgrade University and Princeton Ocean Model for the period 1961–2015 using the A1B scenario, and the expected changes up to 2030 were presented. Spreading and relative abundance of Anopheles hyrcanus was positively correlated with the trend of the mean annual temperature. We anticipated a nearly twofold increase in the number of invaded sites up to 2030. The frequency of WNV detections in Culex pipiens was significantly correlated to overwintering temperature averages and seasonal relative humidity at the sampling sites. Regression model projects a twofold increase in the incidence of WNV positive Cx. pipiens for a rise of 0.5°C in overwintering TOctober–April temperatures. The projected increase of 56% in the number of days with Tmax ≥ 30°C (Hot Days—HD) and UVR doses (up to 1.2%) corresponds to an increasing trend in melanoma incidence. Simulations of the Pannonian countries climate anticipate warmer and drier conditions with possible dominance of temperature and number of HD over other ecological factors. These signal the importance of monitoring the changes to the preparedness of mitigating the risk of vector-borne diseases and melanoma.

Klíčová slova:

Climate change – Climate modeling – Europe – Horses – Melanomas – Mosquitoes – Serbia – West Nile virus


Zdroje

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