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ETAPOD: A forecast model for prediction of black pod disease outbreak in Nigeria


Autoři: Peter M. Etaware aff001;  Abiodun R. Adedeji aff002;  Oyedeji I. Osowole aff003;  Adegboyega C. Odebode aff001
Působiště autorů: Department of Botany, Faculty of Science, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria aff001;  Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria (CRIN), Idi-Ayunre, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria aff002;  Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria aff003
Vyšlo v časopise: PLoS ONE 15(1)
Kategorie: Research Article
doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0209306

Souhrn

Food poisoning and environmental pollution are products of excessive chemical usage in Agriculture. In Nigeria, cocoa farmers apply fungicides frequently to control black pod disease (BPD), this practice is life threatening and lethal to the environment. The development of a warning system to detect BPD outbreak can help minimize excessive usage of fungicide by farmers. 8 models (MRM1-MRM8) were developed and 5 (MRM1-MRM5) selected for optimization and performance check. MRM5 (ETAPOD) performed better than the other forecast models. ETAPOD had 100% performance rating for BPD prediction in Ekiti (2009, 2010, 2011 and 2015) with model efficiency of 95–100%. The performance of the model was rated 80% in 2010 and 2015 (Ondo) with model efficiency of 85–90%, 70% in 2011 (Osun) with model efficiency of 81–84%, 60% in 2010 (Ondo and Osun) and 2015 (Osun) with model efficiency of 75–80%, 40% in 2009 (Osun) with model efficiency of 65–69% and 0% 1n 2011 (Ondo) with model efficiency between 0 and 49%. ETAPOD is a simplified BPD detection device for the past, present and future.

Klíčová slova:

Agricultural workers – Epidemiology – Forecasting – Fungicides – Humidity – Nigeria – Pathogens – Plant pathology


Zdroje

1. Agbeniyi S.O. and Oni M.O. 2014. Field evaluation of copper based fungicides to control Phytophthora pod rot of cocoa in Nigeria, International Journal of Development and Sustainability 3(2): 388–392

2. Adegbola, M.O.K. 1972. Cocoa diseases of West Africa, 7th International Cocoa Research Conference, Douala, Cameroon pg179-184

3. Oluyole K. A. and Lawal J. O. 2008. Determinants of the occurrence of black pod disease of cocoa in Edo state, Nigeria: a multivariate probit analysis approach, Economics and Statistics Division, Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria, Ibadan Nigeria, Journal of innovative development strategy, 2(2): 1–4

4. Oduwole, O. O. 2001. Sustainable cocoa production in Nigeria: Farmers perception of technology characteristics and socio-economic factors in adoption decision making. Proceedings from the 13th International Cocoa Research Conference, Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria. pp. 1147–1152.

5. Taylor M. N. 2000. Review of Cocoa Production, Consumption, Stocks and Prices- 2, Cocoa Growers Bulletin. (52): 1–58

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9. Agbeniyi S. O. and Adedeji A.R. 2003. Current Status of Black pod Epidemics in Nigeria, In Proceedings of 14th International Cocoa Research Conference, pp. 1377–1380.

10. Lawal J.O. and Emaku L.A. 2007. Evaluation of the effect of climatic changes on cocoa production in Nigeria: Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria (CRIN) as a case study. African Crop Science Conference Proceedings (8): 423–426.

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