Transport oil product consumption and GHG emission reduction potential in China: An electric vehicle-based scenario analysis


Autoři: Yuhua Zheng aff001;  Shiqi Li aff001;  Shuangshuang Xu aff001
Působiště autorů: School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing, China aff001
Vyšlo v časopise: PLoS ONE 14(9)
Kategorie: Research Article
doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0222448

Souhrn

China’s transport sector is facing enormous challenges from soaring energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Transport electrification has been viewed as a major solution to transportation decarbonization, and electric vehicles (EVs) have attracted considerable attention from policymakers. This paper analyzes the effects of the introduction of EVs in China. A system dynamics model is developed and applied to assess the energy-saving and emission-reducing impacts of the projected penetration of EVs until the year 2030. Five types of scenarios of various EV penetration rates, electricity generation mixes, and the speed of technological improvement are discussed. Results confirm that reductions in transport GHG emissions and gasoline and diesel consumption by 3.0%–16.2%, 4.4%–16.1%, and 15.8%–34.3%, respectively, will be achieved by 2030 under China’s projected EV penetration scenarios. Results also confirm that if EV penetration is accompanied by decarbonized electricity generation, that is, the use of 55% coal by 2030, then total transport GHG emissions will be further reduced by 0.8%–4.4%. Moreover, further reductions of GHG emissions of up to 5.6% could be achieved through technological improvement. The promotion of EVs could substantially affect the reduction of transport GHG emissions in China, despite the uncertainty of the influence intensity, which is dependent on the penetration rate of EVs, the decarbonization of the power sector, and the technological improvement efficiency of EVs and internal combustion engine vehicles.

Klíčová slova:

Physical sciences – Physics – Electricity – Materials science – Materials – Fuels – Fossil fuels – Gasoline – Coal – Organic materials – Engineering and technology – Energy and power – Transportation – Biology and life sciences – Biochemistry – Lipids – Oils – Developmental biology – Life cycles – Research and analysis methods – Simulation and modeling


Zdroje

1. The International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2016. IEA; 2016. https://doi.org/10.1787/weo-2017-en

2. Liu Z. China’s Carbon Emissions Report 2016. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School. 2016; 10. https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/chinas-carbon-emissions-report-2016

3. National Bureau of Statistics of People’s Republic of China. China Energy Statistical Yearbook (1990–2017), Beijing: China Statistic Press, 1990–2017.

4. Zhang HJ, Chen WY, Huang WL. TIMES modelling of transport sector in China and USA: Comparisons from a decarbonization perspective. Appl Energy. 2016; 162:1505–1514.

5. Zhang L, Long R, Chen H, Geng J. A review of China’s road traffic carbon emissions. J Clean Prod. 2019; 207:569–581.

6. National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Statistical Yearbook 2017. 2018: Beijing.

7. Casals L C, Martinez-Laserna E, García B A, Nieto N. Sustainability analysis of the electric vehicle use in Europe for CO2 emissions reduction. J Clean Prod. 2016; 127: 425–437.

8. Ruhnau O, Bannik S, Otten S, Praktiknjo A, Robinius M. Direct or indirect electrification? A review of heat generation and road transport decarbosization scenarios for Germany 2050. Energy. 2019; 166: 989–999.

9. The International Energy Agency. Global EV Outlook 2017. IEA; 2017. https://webstore.iea.org/global-ev-outlook-2017

10. Mattila T, Antikainen R. Backcasting sustainable freight transport systems for Europe in 2050. Energy Policy. 2011; 39:1241–1248.

11. Pasaoglu G, Honselaar M, Thiel C. Potential vehicle fleet CO2 reductions and cost implications for various vehicle technology deployments scenarios in Europe. Energy Policy. 2012; 40:404–421.

12. Pietzcker R, Longden T, Chen W, Fu S, Kriegler E, Kyle P, et al. Long-term transport energy demand and climate policy: alternative visions on transport decarbonization in energy-economy models. Energy. 2014; 64: 95–108.

13. Ong HC, Mahlia TMI, Masjuki HH. A review on emission and mitigation strategies for road transport in Malaysia. Renew Sustain Energy Rev. 2011; 15:3516–3522.

14. Mustapa SI, Bekhet HA. Analysis of CO2 emissions reduction in the Malaysian transportation sector: An optimization approach. Energy Policy. 2016; 89:171–183.

15. Pongthanaisawan J, Sorapiatana C. Green house gas emission from Thailand’s transport sector: trends and mitigation options. Appl Energy. 2013; 101:288–298.

16. Huo H, Wang M, Zhang X, He K, Gong HM, Jiang KJ, et al. Projection of energy use and green house gas emissions by motor vehicles in China: policy options and impacts. Energy Policy. 2012; 43:37–48.

17. Yin X, Chen W, Eom J, Clarke LE, Kim SH, Patel PL, et al. China’s transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective. Energy Policy. 2015; 82:233–248.

18. Ahmadi P. Environmental impacts and behavioral drivers of deep decarbonization for transportation through electric vehicles. J Clean Prod. 2019; 225: 1209–1219.

19. Trost T, Sterner M, Bruckner T. Impact of electric vehicles and synthetic gaseous fuels on final energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in Germany based on long-term vehicle fleet modelling. Energy. 2017; 141: 1215–1225.

20. Liu T, Wang B, Yang C. Online Markov Chain-based energy management for a hybrid tracked vehicle with speedy Q-learning. Energy. 2018; 160: 544–555.

21. Liu T, Yu H, Guo H, et al. Online Energy Management for Multimode Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles. In: IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics, 2018; pp.1–1.

22. Liu T, Hu X. A bi-level control for energy efficiency improvement of a hybrid tracked vehicle. IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics. 2018; 14: 1616–1625.

23. Liu T, Hu X, Hu W, Zou Y. A Heuristic Planning Reinforcement Learning-Based Energy Management for Power-Split Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles. IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics. 2019, pp.1–1.

24. Wu Y, Yang ZD, Lin BQ, Liu H, Wang R, Zhou B, et al. Energy consumption and CO2 emission impacts of vehicle electrification in three developed regions of China. Energy Policy. 2012; 48:537–550.

25. Lang JL, Cheng SY, Zhou Y, Zhao BB, Wang HY, Zhang SJ. Energy and environmental implications of hybrid and electric vehicles in China. Energies. 2013; 6:2663–2685.

26. Shen W, Han WJ, Wallington TJ. Current and future greenhouse gas emissions associated with electricity generation in China: implications for electric vehicles. Environ Sci Technol. 2014; 48:7069–75. doi: 10.1021/es500524e 24853334

27. Yang Y, Wang C, Liu W, Zhou P. Microsimulation of low carbon urban transport policies in Beijing. Energy Policy. 2017; 107: 561–572.

28. Kamiya G, Axsen J, Crawford C. Modeling the GHG emissions intensity of plug-in electric vehicles using short-term and long-term perspectives. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment. 2019; 69: 209–223.

29. Qiao Q, Zhao F, Liu Z, Jiang S, Hao H. Cradle-to-gate greenhouse gas emissions of battery electric and internal combustion engine vehicles in China. Appl Energy. 2017; 204: 1399–1411.

30. Doucette RT, McCulloch MD. Modeling the prospects of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles to reduce CO2 emissions. Appl Energy. 2011; 88(7):2315–2323.

31. Hofmann J, Guan DB, Chalvatzis K, Huo H. Assessment of electrical vehicles as a successful driver for reducing CO2 emissions in China. Appl Energy. 2016; 184:995–1003.

32. Dhar S, Pathak M, Shukla P R. Electric vehicles and India’s low carbon passenger transport: a long-term co-benefits assessment. J Clean Prod. 2017; 146: 139–148.

33. Wolfram P, Wiedmann T. Electrifying Australian transport: Hybrid life cycle analysis of a transition to electric light-duty vehicles and renewable electricity. Appl Energy. 2017; 206: 531–540.

34. Upadhyayula V K K, Parvatker A G, Baroth A, Shanmugam K. Lightweighting and electrification strategies for improving environmental performance of passenger cars in India by 2030: A critical perspective based on life cycle assessment. J Clean Prod. 2019; 209: 1604–1613.

35. Huo H, Cai H, Zhang Q, Liu F, He K. Life-cycle assessment of greenhouse gas and air emissions of electric vehicles: A comparison between China and the US. Atmospheric Environment. 2015; 108: 107–116.

36. Liu CQ, Jiang XF. Report on the development of the national and international industries of oil and gas in 2017. 1st ed. Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press; 2018.

37. Wood R. Structural decomposition analysis of Australia’s green house gas emissions. Energy Policy.2009; 37:4943–4948.

38. Lu IJ, Lin SJ, Lewis C. Decomposition and decoupling effects of carbon dioxide emission from highway transportation in Taiwan, Germany, Japan and South Korea. Energy Policy. 2007; 35:3226–3235.

39. Eom J, Schipper L, Thompso L. We keep on truckin': trends in freight energy use and carbon emissions in 11 IEA countries. Energy Policy. 2012; 45:327–341.

40. Zhang M, Li H, Zhou M, Mu H. Decomposition analysis of energy consumption in Chinese transportation sector. Appl Energy. 2011; 88:2279–2285.

41. Sumabat AK, Lopez NS, Yu KD, Hao H, Li R, Geng Y, et al. Decomposition analysis of Philippine CO2 emissions from fuel combustion and electricity generation. Appl Energy. 2016; 164:795–804.

42. Luo X, Dong L, Dou Y, Li Y, Liu K, Re JZ, et al. Factor decomposition analysis and causal mechanism investigation on urban transport CO2 emissions: Comparative study on Shanghai and Tokyo. Energy Policy. 2017; 107:658–668.

43. Lin BQ, Benjamin NI. Influencing factors on carbon emissions in China transport industry. A new evidence from quantile regression analysis. J Clean Prod. 2017; 150:175–187.

44. IPCC. Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2015.

45. Zhang X, Zhao X, Jiang Z, Shao S. How to achieve the 2030 CO2 emission-reduction targets for China’s industrial sector: retrospective decomposition and prospective trajectories. Global environmental change. 2017; 44: 83–97

46. Ding N, Yang JX. Life cycle inventory analysis of fossil energy in China. China Environmental Science. 2015; 35(5):1592–1600.

47. Wang N, Ren Y, Zhu T, Meng F, Wen Z, Liu G. Life cycle carbon emission modelling of coal-fired power: Chinese case. Energy. 2018; 162: 841–852.

48. Liao XW, Ji JP, Ma XM. Consistency analysis between technology plans and reduction target on CO2 emissions from China’s power sector in 2020. China Environmental Science. 2013; 33: 553–559.

49. Liao XW, Tan QL, Zhang W, Ma XM, Ji JP. Analysis of Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Potential and Cost for China’s Power Generation Sector. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis. 2013; 49(5): 885–891.

50. Liu SQ, Mao XQ, Xing YK. Estimation and Comparison of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential of New Energy by Life Cycle Assessment in China. Progressus Inquisitiones De Mutatione Climatis. 2012; 8(01):48–53.

51. D W. A guide to life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from electric supply technologies. Energy. 2007; 32(9):1543–1559.

52. Tremblay A S R. The relationship between water quality and GHG emissions in reservoirs. International Journal on Hydropower & Dams. 2006; 13(1):103–107.

53. D W. A guide to life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from electric supply technologies. Energy. 2007; 32(9):1543–1559.

54. Jiang ZY, Pan ZQ, Xing J. Greenhouse gas emissions from nuclear power chain life cycle in China. China Environmental Science. 2015; 35(11):3502–3510

55. Wang Y, Guo S, Guo Q, Xu M. Life cycle emission accounting of wind power industry based on IO-LCA model. Renewable Energy Resources. 2016; 34(7):1032–1039.

56. Wang Q. 2010 Energy Data. Beijing: The Energy Foundation; 2010.

57. BP. BP Energy Outlook 2017. 2017.

58. Zheng YH, Luo DK. Industrial structure and oil consumption growth path of China: Empirical evidence. Energy. 2013; 57: 336–343.

59. Green F, Stern N. China’s “new normal”: structural change, better growth, and peak emissions. Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy. 2015. https://www.cccep.ac.uk/publication/chinas-new-normal-structural-change-better-growth-and-peak-emissions/

60. Wu T, Zhao HM, Ou XM. Vehicle Ownership Analysis Based on GDP per Capita in China: 1963–2050. Sustainability. 2014; 6:4877–4899.

61. Du HB, Liu DY, Southworth F, Ma SF, Qiu FM. Pathways for energy conservation and emissions mitigation in road transport up to 2030: A case study of the Jing-Jin-Ji area, China. J Clean Prod. 2017; 162:882–893.

62. National Development and Reform Commission. Guide for development of electric vehicle charging infrastructure 2015–2020. 2015. http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbtz/201511/t20151117_758762.html

63. Society of Automotive Engineers of China. Energy saving and new energy vehicle technology roadmap. 1st ed. Beijing: Machinery Industry Press; 2016.

64. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People’s Republic of China, China Automobile Fuel Consumption Query System In 2018. http://www.miit.gov.cn/asopCmsSearch/n2282/index.html?searchId=qcppcx&type=2

65. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People’s Republic of China, Information disclosure catalogue. In 2018. http://www.miit.gov.cn/gdnps/#

66. Geng Y, Ma ZX, Xue B, Ren W, Liu Z, Fujita T. Co-benefit evaluation for urban public transportation sector e a case of Shenyang, China. J Clean Prod. 2013; 58:82–91.

67. Guo D, Zhang HH, Zheng CY, Gao S, Wang DQ. Analysis of the future development of Chinese auto energy saving and environmental benefits. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice. 2016; 36(6):1593–1599.

68. Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China. China Vehicle Environment Management Annual Report 2017. 2017; 6:3. http://www.mee.gov.cn/gkml/sthjbgw/qt/201706/t20170603_415265.htm

69. Zhao F, Liu F, Liu Z, Hao H. The correlated impacts of fuel consumption improvements and vehicle electrification on vehicle greenhouse gas emissions in China. J Clean Prod. 2019; 207: 702–716.

70. Rangaraju S, De Vroey L, Messagie M, Mertens J, Mierlo V J. Impacts of electricity mix, charging profile, and driving behavior on the emissions performance of battery electric vehicles: A Belgian case study. Appl Energy. 2015; 148: 496–505.

71. Watabe A, Leaver J, Ishida H, Shafiei E. Impact of low emissions vehicles on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Japan. Energy Policy. 2019; 130: 227–242.

72. Palencia J C G, Araki M, Shiga S. Energy, environmental and economic impact of mini-sized and zero-emission vehicle diffusion on a light-duty vehicle fleet. Appl Energy. 2016; 181: 96–109.

73. Nanaki E A, Koroneos C J. Climate change mitigation and deployment of electric vehicles in urban areas. Renewable energy. 2016; 99: 1153–1160.

74. Teixeira A C R, Sodré J R. Simulation of the impacts on carbon dioxide emissions from replacement of a conventional Brazilian taxi fleet by electric vehicles. Energy. 2016; 115: 1617–1622.


Článek vyšel v časopise

PLOS One


2019 Číslo 9
Nejčtenější tento týden